There's no European football this week, but Tuesday is busy anyway. Serie A starts a midweek round, the DFB-Pokal second round kicks off with eight games, and Arsenal open the Carabao Cup fourth round at Fleetwood. That's a lot of player markets, and cup nights come with two things league nights don't: heavy rotation and the chance of extra time.
As always, no odds and no picks. Just the players I'd open first and the things I'd check. Yesterday's notes on PSG v Lyon and Sevilla v Osasuna are in player props for Monday 26 October.
01Today's games#
All times are Amsterdam time (CET). UK time is one hour earlier.
| Kick-off | Competition | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | DFB-Pokal | Hamburger SV v Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 18:00 | DFB-Pokal | Bochum v Mainz, Großaspach v Augsburg, RW Essen v RB Leipzig |
| 18:30 | Serie A | Sassuolo v Lazio |
| 20:45 | Serie A | Roma v Cagliari |
| 20:45 | Serie A | Torino v Como |
| 20:45 | DFB-Pokal | Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen |
| 20:45 | DFB-Pokal | Köln v Union Berlin, Gladbach v Karlsruhe, Elversberg v Darmstadt |
| 21:00 | Carabao Cup | Fleetwood Town v Arsenal |
Sources: Lega Serie A and Sky Sport Italia for Serie A, the DFB's official schedule for the Pokal, and Sky Sports and Radio Times for the Carabao Cup.
021. Max Dowman, Fleetwood v Arsenal (21:00)#
Market to check: shots
Arsenal go to Anfield at the weekend, so Arteta is expected to rotate a lot. The Standard and Sports Illustrated both have Dowman starting on the right, and both point to his display in the last round, when he scored twice in the 4-2 win at Ipswich. Asked if Dowman would start, Arteta smiled and said "Let's see," which isn't a no.
The opponent helps. Sports Illustrated says Fleetwood have lost five of their last seven and have dropped to 18th in League Two. A big gap in quality usually means a lot of the ball and a lot of shots for the favourite's attackers.
The risk is that nobody knows the rest of the front line. The Standard has Gyökeres up front, Sports Illustrated has Havertz, and the two don't agree on the other wide spot either. So I'd look at Dowman's shot lines rather than the striker's, and only once the team sheet is out.
032. Tijjani Noslin, Sassuolo v Lazio (18:30)#
Market to check: anytime goalscorer, then shots on target
Lazio have won seven of their first eight league games, which Lega Serie A calls the best start in the club's history. TuttoMercatoWeb expects Gattuso to make just one change from the side that beat Parma, and that change is in defence. Noslin stays in the middle of the front three with Isaksen and Zaccagni either side.
Two things make his case. Pinamonti has tracheitis and, per TuttoMercatoWeb, is only trying to make the bench, so there's no obvious rival for the central spot. And Lega Serie A says Sassuolo have conceded six goals in their last two games. Goals conceded isn't the same as shots conceded, so check how many chances Sassuolo actually give up before you lean on that.
043. Donyell Malen, Roma v Cagliari (20:45)#
Market to check: shots on target
TuttoMercatoWeb calls Malen Roma's fixed point up front, with Castro on the bench again and Soulé and Mora behind him. Roma are coming off a draining 3-3 draw at Napoli, so expect rotation elsewhere, but not at centre forward.
Cagliari have lost 2-0 to Bologna, and Lega Serie A mentions a 4-0 defeat at Monza on matchday 6. That's not a defence in good shape.
The one to watch is Dybala. Lega Serie A thinks a start "looks increasingly likely", while TuttoMercatoWeb has him on the bench, and Gasperini told Eurosport a return was possible "at least for the bench". If Dybala starts, he could take some of the shots that would otherwise go to Malen and Soulé.
05Dortmund v Bremen: the cup tie to watch#
I covered Serhou Guirassy on Saturday in player props for 24 October, so just a short note here. RUHR24 says there's "no way past" Guirassy up front, and Kovac has confirmed Joane Gadou starts in place of the suspended Ramy Bensebaini. Behind Guirassy it's less clear. RUHR24 expects Beier and Nwaneri, but other previews have different names.
The league game between these two finished 2-2, and the Bundesliga's own preview notes all four goals came after the 80th minute. A tight cup tie can mean 30 more minutes. That's where the rules come in.
06Cup night rules to check#
- Extra time. Many bookmakers settle player props on 90 minutes plus stoppage time only, but rules differ. Check whether extra time counts for your bet before you place it.
- Penalty shoot-outs. A shoot-out goal isn't a goal for goalscorer markets. Don't confuse it with a penalty in normal time.
- Non-starters. Rotation is heavier in cup games, so this matters more than usual. Some bookmakers void if a player doesn't start, others only if he doesn't play at all. The settlement quirks are in anytime goalscorer bets explained and shots on target betting.
- Team sheets first. They land about an hour before kick-off, so around 17:00, 17:30, 19:45 and 20:00 tonight. That's when fair odds move most. See how line-ups and penalties move prices.
- Compare with a fair odd. If a price is bigger than fair, it's positive EV. If you want to build your own fair price, read fair odds for player props. The maths behind EV is in what is expected value in betting.
07Frequently asked questions#
What time is Fleetwood v Arsenal tonight?#
It kicks off at 21:00 Amsterdam time on Tuesday 27 October 2026 at Highbury Stadium in Fleetwood. That's 20:00 in the UK.
Do goals in extra time count for anytime goalscorer bets?#
Often not. Many bookmakers settle goalscorer and other player markets on 90 minutes plus stoppage time, and shoot-out goals never count. But rules vary, so check your bookmaker's terms before betting on a cup tie.