Player Props Today: Guirassy, Højlund and Julián Álvarez (Saturday 24 October)

All times are Amsterdam time (CEST). The clocks go back tonight, but every game below kicks off before that happens.

Sources: the DFB data centre, Lega Serie A, Real Madrid's official matchday schedule for LaLiga, the KNVB and Ligue 1's TV schedule. The Premier League Saturday games (Aston Villa v Manchester City at 13:30, Arsenal v Everton and Coventry v Fulham at 16:00, Chelsea v Tottenham at 18:30) are in yesterday's piece.

Why shots and shots on target again? They settle more often than goals and depend less on one finish. If you're new to the rules, start with shots on target betting and the guide to player shots bets.

Market to check: shots on target, then anytime goalscorer

Dortmund's attack has been a worry. Sports Mole notes they managed only two shots on target in last week's 0-0 with Union Berlin. Then Guirassy scored both goals in the 2-1 win over Sabah on Tuesday, in what Bulinews called "an extremely wasteful performance". Kovač has asked the squad to be "more ruthless" in front of goal.

The opponent helps. Frankfurt have already conceded 16 Bundesliga goals, including a 6-0 defeat at Leipzig. Sports Mole calls Guirassy "a certain inclusion", and the Bundesliga's official probable XI has him as the lone striker with Nwaneri and Beier behind him.

The risk: a back three with wing-backs can mean a lot of crosses, and that's good for shots but not always for shots on target. Dortmund play Bremen in the DFB-Pokal next week, but I wouldn't expect Kovač to rest his striker in the Topspiel.

Market to check: shots on target

Sky Sport Italia calls Højlund "la certezza", the one sure thing in Allegri's attack, with Politano and Lang either side. La Repubblica has the same front three. The two outlets disagree on the goalkeeper and the midfield, but not on him.

Roma are unbeaten, so this isn't a soft spot on paper. But their injury list is long. La Repubblica lists Svilar, Koné, Dybala and Lorenzo Pellegrini as out, and Cristante is trying to play through a problem. Malen is back from suspension, which matters more for the Roma side of the shot markets.

Napoli have a league game away at Monza on Wednesday, so watch for a substitution around the hour if the game is settled. With De Bruyne and McTominay in midfield, I wouldn't assume Højlund is on penalties. That's another reason I'd look at shots on target before his goalscorer price.

Market to check: shots, then anytime goalscorer

This one's about form and confidence. AS writes that Julián's goal against Stuttgart in the Champions League on Tuesday was his first of the season, and that scoring is "the only way" to turn the whistles from the stands into applause. A striker who's just broken a drought, at home, is a fair place to start.

AS's predicted XI has him up front with Lookman. Simeone has more forwards than he needs right now, with Jonathan David also available, so this isn't a lock. Midfield is the bigger problem: Cardoso, Koke and Cuti are all out, and Barrios is having his minutes managed.

The risk is the late kick-off and the rotation. If Simeone goes with David instead, the price on Julián is meaningless. Wait for the team sheet, around 20:00 our time.

• Wait for the line-ups. They're out about an hour before kick-off. Probable XIs from different outlets often disagree, as Napoli shows today. More on that in how line-ups and penalties move prices.
• Think about minutes. Several of these teams play again on Tuesday or Wednesday, so a striker who comes off after 60 minutes loses a big chunk of his chances.
• Look at shots conceded, not just goals. Frankfurt's 16 goals against is a headline. How many shots they allow, and from where, tells you more.
• Know your bookmaker's rules. Non-starter rules differ. See anytime goalscorer bets explained.
• Compare with a fair odd. A price bigger than fair has positive EV. The maths is in what is expected value in betting.