Matchweek 8 runs from tonight to Sunday, with ten games and no Monday fixture. I've picked three players I'd look at in the shot markets. Not the most famous names, but players who should start and have a clear reason to get shots away.
I don't post odds I can't check, and this isn't a list of bets to place. It's where I'd start looking. The fair odds and EV% for every line are on the dashboard.
01This weekend's fixtures#
Times are Amsterdam time. The clocks go back on Sunday morning in both the Netherlands and the UK, so UK time stays one hour behind ours all weekend.
| Day | Kick-off | Match |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 23 Oct | 21:00 | Ipswich v Nottingham Forest |
| Sat 24 Oct | 13:30 | Aston Villa v Manchester City |
| Sat 24 Oct | 16:00 | Arsenal v Everton |
| Sat 24 Oct | 16:00 | Coventry v Fulham |
| Sat 24 Oct | 18:30 | Chelsea v Tottenham |
| Sun 25 Oct | 15:00 | Crystal Palace v Newcastle |
| Sun 25 Oct | 15:00 | Hull v Brentford |
| Sun 25 Oct | 15:00 | Liverpool v Brighton |
| Sun 25 Oct | 15:00 | Manchester United v Bournemouth |
| Sun 25 Oct | 17:30 | Sunderland v Leeds |
Source: the Premier League's official fixture list.
Why shots and shots on target? Goalscorer prices get the most attention and are the hardest to beat. Shots settle more often and depend less on one finish. The rules are in shots on target betting.
021. Liam Delap, Ipswich v Nottingham Forest (Friday 21:00)#
Market to check: shots, then shots on target
Forest are 19th and the league's lowest scorers with five goals in seven games. So why him? Glasner was asked about Delap before this game and said the job is "getting him into more positions where he can score", calling him "one of our best finishers". After the 1-0 defeat to Arsenal he said Delap "was incredible against Konsa and Gabriel" and caused them "really big problems". He's only scored once for Forest, though, so this is a volume angle, not a hot-streak one.
Then there's the venue. The Guardian points out that 12 of Delap's 14 career Premier League goals came for Ipswich, six of them at Portman Road. He knows the place.
Start chance looks good. Glasner said only Igor Jesus (calf) and Nicolò Savona (knee) are out, which takes one rival striker out of the picture. Dave.sport's predicted XI has Delap up front in a 3-4-2-1, and Morgan Gibbs-White is back to supply him.
The risks: Chris Wood is still in the squad, Glasner talked about "making some adjustments", and Forest plan to be "pragmatic". A low-possession Forest could mean fewer touches in the box. I couldn't confirm who takes Forest's penalties right now, so I'd stay away from his goalscorer line.
032. Eberechi Eze, Arsenal v Everton (Saturday 16:00)#
Market to check: shots on target
Bukayo Saka limped off after ten minutes at Bayern on Wednesday. Arteta said "it doesn't look good at all" and called it his quad. Eze came on, played Saka's position and scored 15 minutes later in the 2-2 draw.
Sports Mole says Eze "will undoubtedly return to the first XI". They have Madueke switching to the right, while The False 9 has Eze on the right wing in a 4-2-3-1. Either way, he starts in every predicted line-up I've seen.
Everton have only lost once in the league, so they're not soft. But with Tarkowski and Branthwaite protecting the box, Arsenal will need cutbacks and shots from the edge, which suits Eze.
Two things to watch. First, Eze's first half at Forest last weekend wasn't great and he was replaced at the break, so his minutes aren't guaranteed if things go badly. Second, penalties. With Saka out, I haven't seen it confirmed who takes them. If it's Eze, his goal and shots on target lines get more volatile, because one penalty can settle a bet by itself. That's why I'd treat a goalscorer price on him with care and look at shots on target first.
043. João Pedro, Chelsea v Tottenham (Saturday 18:30)#
Market to check: shots on target
João Pedro had five goals in his first five Premier League appearances this season, plus three assists, according to Chelsea's own site. Xabi Alonso said he "wants to be in the box" and called him "very complete". Sports Mole adds that he's scored three goals in three league games against Spurs, and has him starting up front with Palmer and Morgan Rogers behind him.
Spurs finally won a league game on Monday, 3-1 against Coventry. But they're still missing a lot: Bentancur is suspended, and Simons, Odobert, Bergvall, Mudryk and Savio are injured. Udogie, Porro and Adarabioyo are doubts. A derby against a side with that many changes is a good spot for a striker who gets on the ball in the box.
The uncertainty: Alonso's press conference is today at 14:30 Amsterdam time, so team news may still change. Chelsea also host Liverpool in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday, but I'd be surprised to see their striker rested for a Spurs derby. Palmer will be on the pitch, so I wouldn't assume João Pedro is on penalties. That makes shots on target a cleaner market for him than anytime goalscorer.
05Before you bet#
- Wait for the team sheets. Line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.
- Know the non-starter rule. Some bookmakers void if he doesn't start, others only if he doesn't play. See anytime goalscorer bets explained.
- Compare with a fair odd. Bigger than fair means positive EV. The maths is in what is expected value in betting.
The method behind these picks is in Premier League player props.
06Frequently asked questions#
What time are the Premier League games this weekend?#
Ipswich v Nottingham Forest kicks off on Friday 23 October at 21:00 Amsterdam time. On Saturday, Aston Villa v Manchester City is at 13:30, Arsenal v Everton and Coventry v Fulham at 16:00, and Chelsea v Tottenham at 18:30. On Sunday, four games start at 15:00 and Sunderland v Leeds at 17:30. UK time is one hour earlier.
Is Bukayo Saka playing against Everton?#
Probably not. He came off after ten minutes at Bayern with a quad problem, and every predicted line-up I've seen has Eberechi Eze starting instead.