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- Accumulator (acca, parlay)#
An accumulator combines selections from different matches into one bet, with the odds multiplied together. Every leg has to win. Because each leg carries its own margin, the overall margin grows quickly with each one added.
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- Alternative lines#
Alternative lines are a ladder of thresholds on the same player and stat, for example 1+, 2+, 3+ and 4+ shots, each with its own price. Bookmakers don't always price every rung with the same care, so one line can be value while the next isn't.
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- American odds#
American odds use plus and minus numbers. +150 means 150 profit on a 100 stake, and -200 means you need to stake 200 to win 100. To convert to decimal, +150 becomes 150 / 100 + 1 = 2.50 and -200 becomes 100 / 200 + 1 = 1.50.
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- Anytime goalscorer#
An anytime goalscorer bet wins if your player scores at least one goal during the match. Own goals don't count, and penalties in normal play do. Non-starter and extra-time rules vary, so check your bookmaker's rules.
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- Assist#
Under Opta's standard definition, an assist is the final touch from a teammate that leads to a goal. Own goals, direct free kicks and direct corners don't produce one, and winning a penalty doesn't count. Fantasy Premier League uses a broader definition, so check your bookmaker's rules.
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- B2B sportsbook supplier#
A B2B sportsbook supplier sells odds, risk management and betting technology to other bookmakers, who put their own brand on top. That's why prices can be identical across different bookmaker websites. Kambi is a well-known example in Europe.
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- Bankroll#
Your bankroll is the money you've set aside for betting and can afford to lose. Keeping it separate from everyday money makes it easier to size stakes sensibly and track results. Stakes are usually a small fraction of it, so a losing run doesn't wipe it out.
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- Bet builder#
A bet builder combines several selections from the same match into one bet, for example a player to score plus 2+ shots on target. Every leg has to win. Builders are priced with correlation in mind and usually carry a bigger margin than single bets.
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- Bet365#
Bet365 is one of the largest online bookmakers and runs its own pricing and trading for most markets, including a wide range of football player props. Its published rules cover non-starters, extra time and Opta-based settlement for player stats. JOPP compares its fair odds with Bet365 prices.
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- Blocked shot#
A blocked shot is an attempt stopped by an outfield defender before it reaches the goal. It counts as a shot but not as a shot on target, unless the blocker is the last man stopping a goal-bound effort on the line. Deep-lying defences tend to produce lots of them.
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- Bookmaker margin#
The bookmaker margin is the built-in edge in a set of odds that makes the bookmaker money over time. You can see it by adding up the implied probabilities of every outcome in a market: anything above 100% is margin. Player props usually carry bigger margins than the main match markets.
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- BTTS (both teams to score)#
BTTS, short for both teams to score, is a match bet that wins if each team scores at least one goal. "BTTS no" wins if at least one team keeps a clean sheet. It's a match market rather than a player prop, but it's often combined with player legs in a bet builder.
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- Closing line#
The closing line is the last price available on a market before it closes, usually just before kick-off. By then it reflects team news and most of the money that's been bet, so it's often treated as the market's best estimate.
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- Closing line value (CLV)#
Closing line value measures whether you got a better price than the closing line. If you took 2.40 and the price closed at 2.20, you beat the close. Consistently beating the closing line is widely seen as a sign that your estimates are good, even before results catch up.
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- Correlation#
Correlation means two outcomes tend to happen together, or tend not to. A striker scoring and his team winning are positively correlated. In a bet builder, correlation is why the fair price isn't just the single odds multiplied together.
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- De-vigging (removing the margin)#
De-vigging means stripping the bookmaker margin out of a set of odds to estimate fair odds. The simplest way is to divide each implied probability by the total. It only works properly when every outcome in the market is priced, which many player props aren't.
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- Decimal odds#
Decimal odds show the total return per 1 unit staked, including the stake. Odds of 2.50 return 2.50 for a 1 unit bet, which is 1.50 profit. They're the easiest format for maths, because the implied probability is just 1 divided by the odds.
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- Edge#
Your edge is how much better your expected return is than break-even, usually shown as a percentage. In practice it's the same idea as EV%. Bookmakers have an edge on most bets through their margin, and value betting is about finding the exceptions.
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- EV%#
EV% is expected value expressed as a percentage of the stake. You can work it out as (bookmaker odd / fair odd - 1) x 100. A reading of +5% means that, on average, you'd expect to get back 5% more than you staked over many similar bets.
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- Expected assists (xA)#
Expected assists measures the expected goals value of the shots a player sets up with his passes. It rewards chance creation regardless of whether the teammate finishes. It's one of the main inputs for pricing assist markets.
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- Expected goals (xG)#
Expected goals measures the quality of a chance as the probability that a shot like it becomes a goal, based on things like distance, angle and the type of chance. Adding up a player's xG gives a sense of how many goals his chances were worth. It's a key input for goalscorer and shots models.
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- Expected minutes#
Expected minutes is how long you expect a player to be on the pitch. Every player prop scales with it, because a player can't shoot or score from the bench. Rotation, injuries and substitution patterns make it one of the biggest sources of error in prop prices.
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- Expected value (EV)#
Expected value is the average result of a bet if you could place it many times under the same conditions. A bet has positive EV when the odds pay more than the true chance of the outcome deserves. It describes the long run, not what happens tonight.
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- Fair odds#
Fair odds are the odds an outcome would have with no bookmaker margin, based on its true chance as best you can estimate it. The fair odd is 1 divided by the probability, so a 40% chance has a fair odd of 2.50. Comparing a bookmaker's price with a fair odd is how you spot value.
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- Fantasy assist#
A Fantasy assist is the broader definition used by Fantasy Premier League. It can include winning a penalty or free kick that's scored, a shot saved or blocked into a teammate's path, and forcing an own goal. Bookmakers that settle on the standard assist definition don't count those, so a Fantasy assist doesn't always mean a winning assist bet.
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- First goalscorer#
A first goalscorer bet wins only if your player scores the first goal of the match. Own goals don't count, so if the first goal is an own goal most bookmakers look at the next one instead. It's a much less likely outcome than anytime goalscorer, so the odds are bigger.
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- Flat staking#
Flat staking means betting the same amount, or the same number of units, on every bet regardless of odds or confidence. It's simple and keeps one bad estimate from doing much damage. Many bettors prefer it to more aggressive methods.
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- Fractional odds#
Fractional odds, common in the UK and Ireland, show profit relative to stake. Odds of 3/1 mean 3 units profit for every 1 staked. To convert to decimal, divide the two numbers and add 1, so 3/1 is 4.00 and 4/6 is about 1.67.
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- Goal or assist#
A goal or assist bet wins if your player scores or provides an assist, or both. The chance is less than the goal and assist chances added together, because some matches include both. Assists usually follow the standard data provider definition.
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- Header (to score a header)#
A header bet wins if your player scores a goal where his last touch is with his head. Goals off the shoulder or chest don't count, and neither do own goals. Some bookmakers also offer headed shots on target as a separate market.
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- Implied probability#
Implied probability is the chance of an outcome that a set of odds suggests, worked out as 1 divided by the decimal odds. Odds of 4.00 imply 25%. Because bookmaker odds include a margin, implied probability is always a little higher than the real chance.
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- Kambi#
Kambi is a B2B sportsbook supplier that provides odds, trading and the betting platform to bookmaker brands that don't price markets themselves. Several brands can show the same Kambi price on the same player at the same time. JOPP groups these as one Kambi price.
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- Kelly criterion#
The Kelly criterion is a formula that sizes a stake according to your edge and the odds, with the aim of growing a bankroll as fast as possible over time. Full Kelly is very aggressive and assumes your probability estimates are accurate, which they rarely are. Many people use a fraction of it, or flat stakes instead.
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- Line#
A line is the threshold or price a bookmaker sets for a market. In player props it usually means the number the player has to reach, such as 1+ or 2+ shots on target. People also use "line" loosely to mean the current odds.
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- Line movement#
Line movement is a change in the odds between when a market opens and when it closes. Player prices move mainly on team news, money from bettors and changes in the match odds. A price shortening after you bet is usually a good sign for the quality of your estimate.
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- Non-starter rule#
The non-starter rule is what a bookmaker does when your player isn't in the starting line-up. Bet365's rules say player markets are void if the player doesn't start. Many other bookmakers only void if the player takes no part, so a late sub appearance means the bet stands. Check your bookmaker's rules.
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- Odds compiler (trader)#
An odds compiler, or trader, is the person or team responsible for setting and adjusting a bookmaker's prices. For high-volume markets like player props, much of this is done by models, with traders adjusting for news and money. Mistakes are more likely where there are hundreds of prices to manage.
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- Opta (data provider)#
Opta, owned by Stats Perform, is one of the main football data providers. Many bookmakers, Bet365 included, settle player stat markets such as shots, shots on target and assists using Opta's data and definitions. When a borderline call decides a bet, the data provider's ruling is what counts.
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- Outside the box#
Outside the box markets need the goal or shot to be struck before the ball enters the penalty area. The lines are part of the penalty area under the Laws of the Game, so a strike from on the line is generally inside. The data provider's ruling settles close calls.
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- Over/under (0.5, 1.5, 2.5)#
Over/under lines use half numbers so there's no tie. Over 0.5 means 1 or more, over 1.5 means 2 or more, and so on. So "over 1.5 shots on target" is the same bet as "2+ shots on target".
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- Overround#
Overround is how far the implied probabilities in a market add up above 100%. If a match market sums to 104.8%, the overround is 4.8%. It's one common way of quoting the bookmaker margin.
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- Own goal#
An own goal is a goal credited to a player who put the ball into his own team's net. Own goals don't count for goalscorer bets on that player, and under the standard definition they don't produce an assist either. Whether a deflected shot is an own goal is decided by the official data, not by the bettor.
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- Payout percentage#
Payout percentage is the share of the money staked on a market that the odds would return if you backed every outcome in the right proportions. It's 1 divided by the sum of the implied probabilities, so a book summing to 104.8% has a payout of about 95.4%. Higher is better for bettors.
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- Player props#
Player props are bets on what an individual player does in a match rather than on the match result. In football that includes goals, assists, shots, shots on target, headers, cards and more. They're usually priced in bulk with wider margins than main markets.
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- Player to be booked#
A player to be booked bet wins if the player receives a card (usually a yellow or red) during the match. It's a common player prop, though JOPP doesn't price it.
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- Poisson distribution#
The Poisson distribution is a simple way to turn an expected count, like 1.2 shots on target, into the chance of 0, 1, 2 or more. The chance of at least one is 1 - e^(-expected count). Real football data is a bit lumpier than Poisson assumes, so it's a starting point rather than a full model.
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- Push#
A push is when a bet lands exactly on the line, so it's neither won nor lost and the stake is returned. Most football player props use half lines like 0.5 or 1.5 precisely so that pushes can't happen. You'll see pushes more in whole-number lines and Asian handicaps.
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- Regular time (90 minutes)#
Regular time is 90 minutes plus stoppage time, and it's what most match markets are settled on. Player markets vary: Bet365's rules say its player match markets include extra time if played, while some other books settle on 90 minutes only. Penalty shootouts don't count for player markets.
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- Sample size#
Sample size is how many matches, shots or bets your conclusion is based on. Small samples are noisy: a player who scores in three games running isn't necessarily a better finisher, and ten winning bets don't prove a method works. Bigger samples give more reliable estimates.
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- Settlement#
Settlement is how and when a bookmaker decides whether a bet won, lost or was void. For player props it depends on the bookmaker's rules and its data source. Two books can settle a borderline case differently.
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A sharp bookmaker sets prices that are hard to beat, usually with low margins and a willingness to take bigger bets from winning customers. Its prices react quickly to informed money. Bettors often use a sharp book's price, with the margin removed, as a fair odd estimate.
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- Shots (total shots)#
A shot is any deliberate attempt at goal: goals, saves, blocked shots, efforts that hit the woodwork and shots that go wide or over. Headers count. Player shots markets are busier than shots on target markets, with shorter prices.
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- Shots on target#
A shot on target is an attempt that goes in, is saved by the goalkeeper, or is blocked on the line by the last defender. Hitting the post isn't on target unless the ball goes in. Most bookmakers settle these markets on official data such as Opta.
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- Soft bookmaker#
A soft bookmaker is one whose prices are easier to beat, often because it caters to recreational bettors and manages risk by limiting winning customers rather than by sharpening prices. Player props at soft books can lag behind team news or other books.
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- Stake limits#
Stake limits are the maximum amount a bookmaker will accept on a bet. Limits on player props are usually lower than on main markets, and some bookmakers cut limits for individual customers who win. It's worth knowing your bookmaker's approach before relying on it.
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- Unit (staking unit)#
A unit is a standard stake size, often a small fixed share of your bankroll. Recording results in units rather than money makes it easier to compare over time. If your unit is 1% of your bankroll, a 2 unit bet risks 2%.
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- Value bet#
A value bet is a bet where the bookmaker's odds are bigger than the fair odds, so it has positive expected value. It doesn't mean the bet is likely to win. A 10.00 shot can be value and a 1.30 favourite can be poor value.
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- Variance#
Variance is the natural spread of results around what you'd expect on average. Even bets with positive EV can lose many times in a row, especially at big odds. It's why judging a strategy on a handful of bets tells you very little.
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- Vig (vigorish, juice)#
Vig, short for vigorish and also called juice, is the American name for the bookmaker's margin. It's the cut built into the odds. Removing it from a price is called de-vigging.
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- Void (no action)#
A void bet, also called no action, is cancelled and your stake is returned. In player props the most common reason is a player not starting or not playing, depending on the bookmaker's rules. In a bet builder or accumulator, a void leg is usually removed and the rest of the bet carries on.
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