Shots on Target Betting: Rules, Tips and How to Find Value

A player shots on target bet asks: will this player register at least X shots on target in the match? The common lines:

• 1+ shots on target (also shown as "over 0.5"): he needs one.
• 2+ shots on target ("over 1.5"): he needs two.
• 3+ and up for the busiest attackers, usually at much bigger odds.

Most bookmakers settle these on official data from a provider like Opta. You can also find team and match shots on target markets, but this article is about player bets.

The standard definition (Opta, used by many bookmakers for settlement) is roughly this: a shot on target is a deliberate attempt that goes in, or would have gone in if the goalkeeper hadn't saved it or a last-man defender hadn't blocked it on the line.

In practice:

The two that catch people out most are woodwork (hitting the post is not on target unless it goes in) and blocked shots (a block by an outfield player who isn't the last man doesn't count). Edge cases exist, and the data provider makes the final call. Check your bookmaker's settlement rules if you want the full list.

Does a penalty count as a shot on target?#

Yes, a penalty in normal play is a shot. If it's scored or saved, it's on target. If it hits the post or goes wide, it's off target. Penalty shootouts don't count.

What if the player doesn't start?#

This depends on the bookmaker:

• Bet365 voids player stat bets like shots on target if the player doesn't start.
• Many other bookmakers void only if the player doesn't play at all. If he comes on as a sub, the bet stands.

That matters for pricing. "Void if no start" means you're effectively betting on a starter. "Stands if he plays" means a 15 minute cameo counts as a real attempt, so the price should be bigger. Check your bookmaker's rules before comparing prices across books.

90 minutes or extra time?#

Settlement rules for player stat markets vary by bookmaker. Bet365, for example, includes extra time if it is played. Check your bookmaker's rules before you bet.

A 1+ shots on target bet wins with one or more. A 2+ shots on target bet needs two or more. The difference in probability is bigger than most people assume, because the second shot on target is a lot harder to get than the first.

Here's a simple way to see it, using a Poisson model. It's a simplification (real shot counts are a bit lumpier), but it's good enough to show the shape.

Example (hypothetical). A forward averages 1.2 shots on target per 90 and you expect him to play 80 minutes.

• Expected shots on target this match = 1.2 x 80 / 90 = 1.07
• Chance of 1+ = 1 - e^(-1.07) = about 65.6%, fair odd 1.52
• Chance of 2+ = 1 - e^(-1.07) x (1 + 1.07) = about 28.9%, fair odd 3.46

So the 2+ line isn't "about double the odds". Here it's more than double, because two is much harder than one.

If you're building your own estimate, these are the inputs I'd look at, roughly in order of importance:

1. Expected minutes. Shots scale with time on the pitch. A player who usually comes off at 60 to 70 minutes gives up a chunk of his chances. This is the single most overlooked factor.
2. Shot volume and accuracy. Shots per 90 and the share that hit the target. Use a decent sample, not his last two games.
3. Role. Central strikers, attacking midfielders who shoot from distance, and set-piece takers all get shots in different ways.
4. Opponent. Some teams allow lots of shots, others sit deep and block everything. Blocked shots don't count, remember.
5. Game state. A favourite that goes 2-0 up may ease off. An underdog chasing the game may shoot more from range.
6. Penalties. A penalty is close to a free shot on target. The designated taker gets a small bump.

Once you have a fair odd, compare it with what bookmakers are paying. If the bookmaker pays more than fair, the bet has positive expected value. I explain the maths in detail in what is expected value in betting.

Example (hypothetical), continuing from above.

• 1+ shots on target: fair odd 1.52, bookmaker offers 1.62. EV = 0.656 x 1.62 - 1 = about +6.2%.
• 2+ shots on target: fair odd 3.46, bookmaker offers 3.10. EV = 0.289 x 3.10 - 1 = about -10.5%.

Same player. One line is value, the other isn't. This happens all the time: bookmakers don't price every line with the same care, and the gaps move around between Kambi books and Bet365.

• Check line-ups before betting. Expected minutes are everything in this market. If he's on the bench, the price you liked yesterday is meaningless.
• Know your bookmaker's non-starter rule. It's the difference between a starter-only bet and one that can be settled by a five minute cameo.
• Look at more than one line. Sometimes 1+ is short and 2+ is generous, or the other way round.
• Don't confuse shots with shots on target. "Shots" includes blocked and off-target efforts. They're separate markets with very different prices. More in player shots bets explained.
• Be wary of tiny samples. Three shots on target in one game doesn't make a player a shot machine.
• Think about the whole match. A team that's likely to dominate the ball usually means more shots for its attackers. That link also matters if you combine legs, which I cover in bet builder tips. For a full weekly routine, see Premier League player props.