Player Props Today: Mbappé, Kane and Guus Til (Sunday 25 October)

All times are Amsterdam time (CET). The clocks went back last night, so the UK is still one hour behind us.

Sources: the Premier League's fixture amendments, Bundesliga.com, Ligue 1's TV schedule, and match listings from FBref and the Dutch and Spanish press.

Market to check: shots on target, then anytime goalscorer

Vinícius is suspended. Sports Illustrated says Sunday is the second game of his four-match ban, and Rodrygo is injured too. That puts even more of Madrid's attack through Mbappé. RotoWire has him on nine LaLiga goals already, including two against Sevilla last weekend, and SI points out he's scored 12 times in 12 games against Barcelona.

The catch: SI also notes Barça have won all 18 LaLiga games since moving back to Camp Nou. Madrid may not see much of the ball, and a striker living on the break is more of a shots on target question than a shot volume one.

Barça's Dani Olmo is out for about a month, and Goal reports that Flick confirmed Koundé misses out with his ankle, so Fermín López is expected in behind Raphinha. The probable XIs don't agree on Madrid's right side: RotoWire has Dumfries at right back, while SI has Valverde there. That changes who's actually running at Barça's left back, so wait for the team sheets around 20:00.

Market to check: anytime goalscorer, then shots on target

Barring a surprise, Kane starts. The Bundesliga's official probable line-up has him up front with Olise, Gnabry and Davies behind him. Sports Mole notes that Davies played out wide against Arsenal in midweek and may have to again, because Luis Díaz picked up an injury in that game.

Bundesliga.com lists Díaz, Kim, Musiala, Neuer and Kimmich (personal reasons) as out. That's a lot of creativity missing behind Kane.

Sports Mole says Freiburg have "started to struggle", and their own striker Igor Matanović hasn't scored in his last four club games. FotMob's head-to-head shows 23 Bayern wins in 31 meetings. Kane's goalscorer price will be short because everyone knows this, so compare the 2+ shots on target line with its fair odd too.

Market to check: shots, then anytime goalscorer

Sven Mijnans, who'd been filling in up front, was sent off in last weekend's 2-1 defeat at ADO Den Haag. Sportnieuws.nl and Bet-Experts both have Til leading the line today, and Sportnieuws says he's already scored five times this season. They disagree on the wingers and on who starts at centre back, but not on him.

The opponent isn't kind. Feyenoord top the table with 23 points from nine games, and Sportnieuws says they've conceded the fewest goals in the league, level with AZ and Twente. Tjark Ernst made nine saves at Real Betis on Tuesday, according to FCUpdate. So a striker might get shots off without many hitting the target, which is why I'd start with plain shots.

The risk: Til isn't a natural number nine. On the other side, FCUpdate says Nacho Ferri already has six league goals, so check his lines too.

Alexander Isak should be back in Liverpool's XI. SI and the Evening Standard both expect him to start, with Hugo Ekitiké out. Liverpool host Chelsea in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday, though, so expected minutes matter here.

• Wait for the line-ups. They're out about an hour before kick-off: around 13:30 for PSV v Feyenoord, 16:30 for Freiburg v Bayern and 20:00 for the Clásico. More on that in how line-ups and penalties move prices.
• Think about minutes. Most of these teams played in Europe this week. A striker who comes off after an hour loses a big chunk of his chances.
• Look at shots conceded, not just goals. How many shots a defence allows, and from where, tells you more than goals against.
• Know your bookmaker's rules. Non-starter rules differ. See anytime goalscorer bets explained and shots on target betting.
• Compare with a fair odd. A price bigger than fair has positive EV. The maths is in what is expected value in betting.