Anytime Goalscorer Bets Explained: Rules, Tips and Finding Value

"Anytime goalscorer" (also called "to score anytime" or "player to score") means your player has to score at least one goal during the match. It doesn't matter when, and it doesn't matter if he scores once or three times; the payout is the same.

It sits next to a few related markets that are easy to mix up:

• First goalscorer: only the first goal of the match counts.
• Last goalscorer: only the last goal counts.
• To score 2 or more / hat-trick: he needs two or three goals.
• Score or assist: a goal or an assist both count. JOPP prices this one as "goal or assist".

Rules differ between bookmakers, and they change. What follows is the common picture, with notes where it varies. Always check your bookmaker's rules for the exact market you're betting on.

Own goals don't count#

If your striker's shot deflects in off a defender and it's given as an own goal, it doesn't count for your bet. Goalscorer markets settle on the official scorer, and own goals are excluded at basically every major bookmaker. This works the other way too: if your defender scores an own goal, that's not a "goal" for him in betting terms.

Penalties do count#

A goal from a penalty in normal play is a goal. That's why penalty takers are priced shorter than similar players who don't take them. Penalty shootouts are a different matter: those goals don't count for goalscorer bets.

Extra time: it depends#

This is where bookmakers genuinely differ. Some settle anytime goalscorer on 90 minutes plus stoppage time only. Others include extra time if it's played. For league matches it doesn't matter, but in cup knockouts it can. Check your bookmaker's rules before betting on a cup tie.

What if my player doesn't start?#

Also bookmaker-specific, and it matters a lot:

• Some bookmakers void the bet if the player doesn't start. Bet365's anytime scorer rules work like this: no start, stake back.
• Others void only if the player takes no part at all. If he comes off the bench for ten minutes, the bet stands as a normal losing (or winning) bet.

This difference changes what a price is worth. A "void if he doesn't start" bet is effectively priced on him starting. A "stands if he comes on" bet has to account for the chance he only plays a short cameo. Comparing the two prices directly, without knowing the rule, is comparing apples and pears.

Abandoned matches and goals that get changed#

If a match is abandoned, bets that weren't already decided are usually void. And if the scorer is changed afterwards (a goal reassigned days later), many bookmakers settle on the information at full time and won't resettle. Rules vary, so check.

Goalscorer markets usually carry a bigger margin than a match result market. There are lots of players, the market isn't a simple two-way price, and most people are betting on names they like rather than on numbers. The result is that most anytime prices are below fair, and the interesting ones are the exceptions.

You can't easily strip the margin out of an anytime market the way you can with a two-way market, because several players can all "win" in the same match. That's one reason I'd rather build a fair price from the player's own numbers.

Here's a simple version of how a fair goalscorer price gets built. It's a rough method, not the only one, but it shows which inputs matter.

1. Scoring rate. Use expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes, ideally without penalties, over a decent sample. Goals alone are too noisy.
2. Expected minutes. A player who's likely to be subbed off at 65 minutes has fewer chances than one who plays 90. This is a big one, and it's often ignored.
3. Opponent and venue. Weaker defences and home games push the rate up; tough away trips pull it down.
4. Penalties. If he's the designated taker, add his share of the team's expected penalty goals.
5. Turn the rate into a probability. A common shortcut is a Poisson model: chance of at least one goal = 1 - e^(-expected goals in the match).

Example (hypothetical). A forward has 0.45 non-penalty xG per 90 and you expect him to play 70 minutes.

• Expected goals in this match = 0.45 x 70 / 90 = 0.35
• Chance he scores at least once = 1 - e^(-0.35) = about 29.5%
• Fair odd = 1 / 0.295 = about 3.39

If he's on penalties, that rate goes up and the fair odd comes down. JOPP has a penalty toggle for exactly this reason: switch it on and the fair odd is recalculated with the player's share of penalties included.

Once you have a fair odd, value is just a comparison. If the bookmaker pays more than fair, it's positive EV. The formula is in my piece on expected value betting, but here's the short version.

Example (hypothetical). The model gives a winger a 31% chance to score.

• Fair odd = 1 / 0.31 = 3.23
• Bookmaker A offers 3.00: EV% = (3.00 / 3.23 - 1) x 100 = -7.1%
• Bookmaker B offers 3.80: EV% = (3.80 / 3.23 - 1) x 100 = +17.6%

Same player, same match. One price is a bad bet, the other is a value bet. That's why comparing more than one bookmaker matters so much in this market.

No "banker of the day" here. Just habits that make the numbers more honest.

• Wait for the line-ups when you can. Starting XIs usually drop about an hour before kick-off. A huge EV% the night before often means the market expects him to be benched.
• Know the non-starter rule of the bookmaker you're using. It changes what the price is worth.
• Don't fall for the famous name. Big strikers attract money, so their prices tend to be the shortest relative to fair. Value is more often in less obvious players.
• Be careful with defenders and long shots. A small error in a 6% probability becomes a big EV% swing at odds of 15.00 or more.
• Respect the penalty question. If the regular taker is out, someone else inherits those chances. Check who.
• Track your bets. The price you took, the fair odd at the time, and the result. Over a few hundred bets that tells you more than any single weekend.

If you like player markets that settle more often than goals do, shots on target is the obvious next step. And for weekly routine, see Premier League player props.