Thursday's a quieter night than yesterday, but there's still enough to work with. The last Carabao Cup fourth-round tie is Everton v Newcastle, Serie A wraps up its midweek round with two games, and the Copa del Rey first round has a few top-flight sides away at small clubs. There's no Europa League or Conference League this week. Matchday 4 is next Thursday.
Same deal as always: no odds and no picks. Just the players I'd open first and what I'd check before I trust a price. Yesterday's notes on Gakpo, Foden and Pio Esposito are in player props for Wednesday 28 October.
01Today's games#
All times are Amsterdam time (CET). UK time is one hour earlier.
| Kick-off | Competition | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 18:30 | Serie A | Frosinone v Lecce |
| 18:45 | KNVB beker | Kozakken Boys v Utrecht |
| 20:45 | Carabao Cup | Everton v Newcastle |
| 20:45 | Serie A | Fiorentina v Atalanta |
| 21:00 | KNVB beker | Groningen v Emmen |
| 21:00 | Copa del Rey | AE Prat v Athletic Club, Sporting Hortaleza v Sevilla |
Getafe, Osasuna and Real Oviedo are also in Copa del Rey action earlier in the evening, and there are six more KNVB beker ties at 20:00. Sources: Lega Serie A's referee appointments for matchday 9, the KNVB beker schedule on Ziggo and AD, FBref's fixture list, Marca and LaLiga for the Copa del Rey.
021. Nikola Krstović, Fiorentina v Atalanta (20:45)#
Market to check: anytime goalscorer, then shots on target
Atalanta are in a mess with injuries. Gazzetta lists Hien, Kossounou, Kolašinac, Kessié, Raspadori, Bellanova and Scamacca all unavailable. Scamacca's hamstring problem is the one that matters here, because it leaves Krstović as the only real number nine. Lega Serie A's own preview says he's already moved ahead of Scamacca in the pecking order, and he scored twice in Saturday's 4-4 draw with Frosinone.
Every predicted XI I found (Goal Italia, Sky Sport Italia, Gazzetta and TuttoAtalanta) has him starting up front for Sarri. That's the appeal. A striker with no competition for his place usually gets close to 90 minutes, even in a busy week.
Fiorentina aren't a team you'd fear right now. Goal Italia says they've lost their last three league games, and they've picked up one draw and three defeats at home. They're also without Pongracic, so Viery comes into the back line. Just remember Atalanta haven't been great either: one win in their last six, per Goal Italia.
032. Thierno Barry, Everton v Newcastle (20:45)#
Market to check: shots, then anytime goalscorer
This is the one with the most attention on it tonight. The Liverpool Echo describes Barry as Everton's sole first-team centre-forward, and TNT Sports says he leads the line "by default". That's about as safe a starting spot as you get in a cup tie.
The context isn't brilliant for him. Everton lost 2-0 to Chelsea and 2-0 at Arsenal in their last two league games, and Sports Mole calls them goal-shy. Branthwaite is out with concussion, and Mykolenko and Grealish are doubts. Tyrique George looks almost certain to start on the wing, per the Echo, and Tyler Dibling could come in too. Both feed the striker.
On the other side, Newcastle's forward line isn't settled. Sporting News expects William Osula to start after he scored the opener in Saturday's 2-0 win at Crystal Palace, but Sports Mole says Wissa and Elanga are pushing for places, and TNT even has Wissa leading the line. So for Newcastle I'd wait for the team sheet before looking at any of their attackers.
043. Antonio Raimondo, Frosinone v Lecce (18:30)#
Market to check: shots, then anytime goalscorer
Frosinone are sixth on 14 points, according to Calciomagazine, and they just scored four at Atalanta. Sky Sport Italia expects Alvini to change only the defence, keeping Ghedjemis, Schmid and Kvernadze behind Raimondo. TuttoMercatoWeb says Bîrligea and Bobček want a start, but Raimondo is still ahead of them.
Lecce are short at the back. Gaspar is suspended after his red card against Juventus, Tiago Gabriel is a doubt with a knee knock, and Ilić, Berisha, Coulibaly and Pierotti are out, per TuttoMercatoWeb. A patched-up defence against a side in form is the kind of setup where the striker's shot count can climb.
The risk is minutes again. Frosinone host Torino on Sunday, so Raimondo could be off around the hour. If you want a second name from this game, Ghedjemis is the one Italian press keep singling out after his display in Bergamo.
05Copa del Rey: be careful#
Sevilla, Athletic, Getafe and Osasuna are all away at lower-league clubs. On paper, that's a lot of shots for the favourites. In practice, these ties are where managers rotate hardest, and the pitches are often small and bumpy. Some bookmakers don't even offer full player markets on these games. If they do, don't touch anything until the line-ups are out, and check whether the bet is settled on 90 minutes or includes extra time.
06Things to check tonight#
- Penalties, not extra time, in the Carabao Cup. If Everton v Newcastle is level after 90 minutes, it goes straight to a shoot-out. A shoot-out goal never counts for goalscorer bets.
- Non-starters. Some bookmakers void if a player doesn't start, others only if he doesn't play at all. Know which one you're using.
- Team sheets first. They come out about an hour before kick-off, and that's when fair odds move most. See how line-ups and penalties move prices.
- Shots versus shots on target. Blocked efforts count for shots but usually not for shots on target. The details are in player shots bets explained.
- Compare with a fair odd. If a price is bigger than fair, it's positive EV. To build your own, read fair odds for player props.
07Frequently asked questions#
What time is Everton v Newcastle tonight?#
It kicks off at 20:45 Amsterdam time on Thursday 29 October 2026 at the Hill Dickinson Stadium. That's 19:45 in the UK.
Is there Europa League football tonight?#
No. Matchday 3 was played last week, and the next Europa League and Conference League round is on Thursday 5 November. My notes from last time are in the Europa League and Conference League preview.