Player Props Today: Olise, Thuram and Arokodare (Saturday 31 October)

All times are Amsterdam time (CET). UK time is one hour earlier.

Sources: the DFB data centre and Bundesliga.com, Lega Serie A, LaLiga's broadcast schedule, the KNVB and Ligue1.com. The Premier League's Saturday games start with Chelsea v Manchester United at 13:30 and are in yesterday's piece.

Market to check: shots, then shots on target

Both teams are on 17 points, split only by goal difference. Bundesliga.com points out that Olise, not Kane, is Bayern's top league scorer so far, with six goals and three assists. Kane has four. Bayern have scored 25 league goals, 18 of them at home.

Bayern's probable XI on Bundesliga.com has Olise on the right behind Kane. Díaz is out and Musiala and Kimmich are doubtful, which makes Olise even more central to how Bayern create. Sports Mole has him starting as well. Kompany won't be on the touchline as he recovers from his health scare, so assistant Aaron Danks picks the side.

The catch is the opponent. Dortmund have conceded four league goals, the fewest in the division, and Kobel has five clean sheets. A tight defence doesn't always mean few shots, though. Teams that defend deep often let you shoot from distance, and Olise loves cutting in onto his left foot. That pads total shots more than shots on target, which is why I'd start with plain shots. More on that difference in player shots bets explained.

Market to check: shots on target, then anytime goalscorer

Lautaro Martínez is out until after the November international break with a hamstring problem, according to Sky Sport Italia. Gazzetta calls Thuram the "guarantee" of Inter's attack without him, and both Sky and Tuttomercatoweb have him starting next to Pio Esposito.

Inter's midfield looks stronger than in midweek. Sky and Gazzetta both expect Barella and Çalhanoğlu back in the XI after starting on the bench at Venezia. Milan are without Tomori, who's out for around a month with a thigh injury, and Sky expects Gila and Diawara at full-back.

The risk: derbies can be cagey, and with Inter playing Feyenoord in the Champions League next week, there's a chance Chivu manages minutes in the second half. Also, with Lautaro out, I haven't seen Inter's penalty order confirmed. If you're looking at his goalscorer line, check that first, because one spot kick can decide the bet on its own.

Market to check: shots on target

Kasper Dolberg is out for the rest of the season with a torn ACL, AD reports, so the striker job is Arokodare's. FCUpdate's predicted XI has him up front with Klaassen and Ouazane either side. Míchel defended him at his press conference, saying Tolu "can perfectly execute the press", while admitting he's sometimes lacked consistency.

AZ have their own problems. FCUpdate lists Hornkamp, Kees Smit and Resink as out, plus goalkeeper Zoet, so De Busser is expected in goal. Míchel says Ajax want to dominate and play in AZ's half, and AZ want exactly the same. That kind of game can open up.

The uncertainty is penalties. Klaassen missed one at Groningen, and Míchel said they haven't decided who takes the next one. He named Klaassen, Marcos Leonardo, Tolu, Brandt and Berghuis as options. Until that's settled, I'd stick to shots on target rather than his goalscorer price.

• Wait for the team sheets. They come out about an hour before kick-off, so roughly 17:30 for Bayern v Dortmund and 19:45 for the derby. Fair odds move most at that moment. See how line-ups and penalties move prices.
• Think about minutes. Bayern, Dortmund and Inter all have Champions League football next week.
• Know the non-starter rule. Some bookmakers void if a player doesn't start, others only if he doesn't play at all. Details in anytime goalscorer bets explained.
• Compare with a fair odd. If a price is bigger than fair, it's positive EV. To build your own, read fair odds for player props.