Header and outside the box markets take a normal goalscorer or shots bet and add a condition: the goal (or the shot) has to come from a header, or from a strike outside the penalty area. That makes them rarer events with bigger prices, and a few rules that are easy to get wrong.
This guide covers both families: the goal markets ("to score a header", "to score from outside the box") and the shot markets ("headed shots on target", "shots on target outside the box").
01The markets at a glance#
| Market | Wins if |
|---|---|
| To score a header | The player scores at least one goal where his last touch is with his head |
| To score from outside the box | The player scores at least one goal from a strike taken outside the penalty area |
| Headed shots on target (1+, 2+) | The player has at least that many headed attempts on target |
| Shots on target outside the box (1+, 2+) | The player has at least that many on-target attempts struck from outside the area |
Not every bookmaker offers all four, and names vary. The rules below are the common ones, but check your bookmaker's rules for the exact wording.
02Header bets: what counts?#
Bet365's rules put it simply: the last touch of the scorer must be with the head. Settlement is based on Opta data. In practice:
- Header that goes straight in: counts.
- Header saved and then the same player scores with his foot from the rebound: that goal isn't a header. The first header may still count as a headed shot on target in the shot markets.
- Goal off the shoulder, chest or back: not a header, because the last touch wasn't the head. On close calls, the data provider decides.
- Own goals: don't count. If a header is deflected in and the goal is given as an own goal, the bet loses.
- Deflected headers: if the goal is still credited to your player, it's still his headed goal.
The last two points come down to who gets credited with the goal. That decision belongs to the data provider (often aligned with the competition's official records), not to what it looked like on TV.
03Outside the box bets: what counts?#
Bet365's rule is that the scorer (or shooter, for shot markets) must strike the ball before it enters the penalty area. Two details matter:
- It's about where the ball is struck, not where it ends up. A long-range shot that deflects off a defender inside the box still counts as from outside, as long as the goal stays credited to your player.
- The lines are part of the box. Under the Laws of the Game, the lines belong to the areas they mark. A strike with the ball on the edge of the area is generally treated as inside. If the replay is close, go with the data provider's call, because that's what settles the bet.
Direct free kicks from outside the area count as outside the box goals when they're credited to the taker. Penalties never do, since they're taken from inside the area.
04Rules that vary between bookmakers#
Check your bookmaker's rules on each of these:
- Non-starters. Bet365 voids player markets if the player doesn't start. Other bookmakers may only void if the player takes no part at all.
- Extra time. Bet365 says its player match markets include extra time if played. Some bookmakers settle on 90 minutes only. Shootouts don't count anywhere I've seen.
- Data source. Most big bookmakers settle on Opta or another official provider. If two books use different providers, a borderline goal can be settled differently.
05How these markets are priced#
Both markets are a slice of a bigger one. A header goal is a goal that happened to be a header. A long-range goal is a goal that happened to come from distance. So the fair price starts with the player's overall chance of scoring and then asks what share of his goals, or his expected goals, come that way.
Example (hypothetical, header market). A centre-forward has expected goals of 0.40 for this match. About 25% of his expected goals historically come from headers.
- Expected headed goals: 0.40 x 0.25 = 0.10
- Chance of at least one headed goal (Poisson): 1 - e^(-0.10), about 9.5%
- Fair odd: about 10.5
If a bookmaker offers 9.00, the EV is 0.095 x 9.00 - 1, about -14.4%. That's not unusual for these markets: the margins are often wide.
Example (hypothetical, outside the box market). Same player, but only about 15% of his expected goals come from outside the area. Expected long-range goals are 0.40 x 0.15 = 0.06, the chance is about 5.8%, and the fair odd is about 17.2.
Small inputs, big prices. A small error in the share (say 15% versus 20%) moves the fair odd a lot, which is exactly why these markets can be mispriced in both directions.
06Who scores headers and long-range goals?#
Without inventing any numbers, the profiles are fairly well known:
- Headers: tall central strikers, centre-backs who attack corners and free kicks, and players on teams that cross a lot. Set-piece volume matters as much as aerial skill.
- Outside the box: attacking midfielders and wide forwards who shoot from distance, and direct free-kick takers. Opponents who sit deep and pack the box tend to push teams into long shots.
Look at the player's shot map over a decent sample rather than one or two highlight goals. A single screamer doesn't make someone a long-range threat.
07The shot versions are usually more practical#
Goals from headers or from distance are rare, so the goal markets can lose for a long time even when the prices are fair. The shot versions (headed shots on target, shots on target outside the box) happen more often, so results come closer to the long-run average sooner. The trade-off is lower odds.
The rules are the same as the goal versions for location and body part, plus the normal shots on target definition: saved, scored, or blocked on the line by the last defender. Woodwork without a goal is off target. The full definition is in the shots on target guide, and the wider shots market is in player shots bets explained.
08Frequently asked questions#
What counts as a header in betting?#
At Bet365, the last touch of the scorer must be with the head, settled on Opta data. Goals off the shoulder or chest don't count, and own goals never count. Other bookmakers use similar wording, but check your bookmaker's rules.
Does a deflected shot count as outside the box?#
Usually yes, if the ball was struck outside the penalty area and the goal is still credited to your player. If the deflection means the goal is given as an own goal, the bet loses.
Is a shot from on the edge of the box inside or outside?#
The lines are part of the penalty area under the Laws of the Game, so a strike with the ball on the line is generally inside. The data provider's ruling is what settles the bet.
Do free kicks count for outside the box bets?#
A direct free kick scored from outside the area counts, as long as the goal is credited to the taker. Penalties don't, because they're taken from inside the box.
What happens if my player doesn't start?#
It depends on the bookmaker. Bet365 voids player markets for non-starters. Some other bookmakers only void if the player doesn't play at all. Check your bookmaker's rules.